View Poll Results: Of all the presents you DIDN'T get for Christmas, which of these do you wish you had?

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  • More money

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Thread: AMD in trouble.

  1. #1
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    Default AMD in trouble.

    For those unaware, the biggest thing on AMD's horizon lately (at least in the business world) has been a joint project with Mubadala Development Co. which was announced earlier this year. AMD is providing materials and technology in exchange for the Abu Dhabi company providing money and investment in AMD. Since the announcement, AMD has lost 50% of their stock value and their partners have backed out of the original investment agreement and are now going to be paying trading values for the 20% interest in AMD they'll acquire rather than the previously negotiated fixed rate.

    Unless something very fortunate happens for AMD in the next cycle, I don't predict them surviving the recession without being bought out by another company. As far as hardware production and sales go, it seems entirely impossible (or at least highly improbable) that they'll be able to produce any hardware that can seriously compete with either Intel or nVidia for a stronger market share. What marginal successes they've had over the last two years have been dramatically overshadowed by their competitors.

    Bottom line... if something doesn't change soon, AMD could wind up unable to produce competitive CPUs of any kind. Without competition in the market, CPU costs would go up quite a bit! Bad news for everyone, especially AMD fanboys who have to suffer seeing their favorite CPU mfg. tanking. They're being sustained, currently, by outside investment at the cost of profit reduction in the future (that is, if they can manage to produce a profit for once) and are getting ready for even more lay-offs.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1228...googlenews_wsj

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will get a smaller stake in a planned manufacturing joint venture and an investment from Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Development Co. will result in less cash for the money-losing chip maker.
    The value of AMD assets being contributed to the joint venture with Abu Dhabi investment entities has been cut, reducing AMD's stake in the venture to 34% from the 44% set when the venture was announced two months ago.
    In addition, the price Mubadala will pay for 58 million shares and 30 million warrants of AMD is no longer fixed. Instead of the $314 million previously agreed to, Mubadala will pay a per-share rate based on an average price for AMD's stock. Mubadala, whose stake in AMD will more than double to nearly 20% as part of the investment, is also getting five million more warrants.
    An AMD spokesman said the terms of the venture were amended as a result of the "challenging economic environment." AMD shares have fallen more than 50% since the joint venture was announced.
    The deal's other terms, including the Abu Dhabi entities paying $1.4 billion into the venture and $700 million to AMD, remains unchanged.
    "Looks like it's being priced down materially," said analyst Brian Piccioni of BMO Capital Markets. "Obviously, they are getting less for what they've got. That's not good."
    The joint venture plan and the investment come as AMD has been trying to cut costs and become consistently profitable as it continues to battle much larger rival Intel Corp. AMD said last month it would cut 3% of its work force and last week slashed its fourth-quarter revenue forecast amid slumping demand, following a similar warning from Intel. The problems are particularly severe in desktop computers.
    Analyst Roger Kay of Endpoint Technologies Associates said it was good that AMD was able to renegotiate the terms and "kept the deal moving."
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    You bastard you should state that you can see who voted for what!
    Blackness is not determined by the colour of your skin, but by the colour of your soul.

  3. #3
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    Wah hah hah hah hah!

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    The poll is never related.

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    AMD's GPU market share is equal to Nvidia's. The HD4000 series really kicked them off. The CPU department has been doing better than before, and it doesn't look like it will get any worse with Phenom II being a better alternative to the Core 2 Quad processors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cribble View Post
    You bastard you should state that you can see who voted for what!
    you can't read that for yourself?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Viluin View Post
    AMD's GPU market share is equal to Nvidia's. The HD4000 series really kicked them off. The CPU department has been doing better than before, and it doesn't look like it will get any worse with Phenom II being a better alternative to the Core 2 Quad processors.
    Ok, well... AMD's market share is down, and their stock prices have cut in half over the last 6 months.

    So there.

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    Okay, maybe not equal, but it's heading that way.

    Before: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/d...029062106.html

    After: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/d...t_Segment.html (40% vs 60%).

    Quote Originally Posted by Surly View Post
    Ok, well... AMD's market share is down, and their stock prices have cut in half over the last 6 months.

    So there.
    Because they had nothing to compete with on the CPU market. That's about to change.
    Last edited by Viluin; 12-29-2008 at 21:35.

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    i thought AMD was always in trouble.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Viluin View Post
    Okay, maybe not equal, but it's heading that way.

    Before: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/d...029062106.html

    After: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/d...t_Segment.html (40% vs 60%).



    Because they had nothing to compete with on the CPU market. That's about to change.
    At least you admit you were dead wrong after researching it. :P AMD got skunked last year and has been fighting to get some share back since. They're not producing impressive gains, but they're not losing market share left and right like they were before (nowhere to go but up from where they hit bottom, I guess).

    Integrated graphics remain to be the largest contributor to market share, though. So if you're talking about after-market cards, or stand-alone PCI-e cards, they don't look that grand. 40% isn't as bad as it used to be, but to get any higher they've got to follow up the 4000s with something good.

    edit: and it isn't going to help their falling stock prices much, if at all. AMD is in financial turmoil, it'd take a miracle to save them immediately. It's going to be a long haul to get them out of the hole they've dug themselves into with a year and a half of ass-grade CPUs and GPUs.
    Last edited by Surly; 12-29-2008 at 21:42.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Surly View Post
    At least you admit you were dead wrong after researching it. :P AMD got skunked last year and has been fighting to get some share back since. They're not producing impressive gains, but they're not losing market share left and right like they were before (nowhere to go but up from where they hit bottom, I guess).

    Integrated graphics remain to be the largest contributor to market share, though. So if you're talking about after-market cards, or stand-alone PCI-e cards, they don't look that grand. 40% isn't as bad as it used to be, but to get any higher they've got to follow up the 4000s with something good.
    AMD should get their next-gen 45nm GPU out a few months before Nvidia does. Apparently they've already got working samples, whereas Nvidia has yet to attempt producing them. It's not looking bad.

    Don't forget that AMD has actually been competitive in server market with their Barcelona CPUs. Servers run at stock settings only, and AMD offers good CPUs at low prices when you only look at stock. AMD processors also kick major ass at virtualization for some reason, no Intel CPU can match.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Viluin View Post
    AMD should get their next-gen 45nm GPU out a few months before Nvidia does. Apparently they've already got working samples, whereas Nvidia has yet to attempt producing them. It's not looking bad.

    Don't forget that AMD has actually been competitive in server market with their Barcelona CPUs. Servers run at stock settings only, and AMD offers good CPUs at low prices when you only look at stock. AMD processors also kick major ass at virtualization for some reason, no Intel CPU can match.
    lol do you know AMD's server CPU market share?

    Anyway the point is... for hardware sales to be the thing that saves AMD, they would have to trounce Intel and nVidia at the same time in a way that has never been done before. I'm talking going from 30-40% market share to 70% market share and not having to slash prices. It's just not possible. The company's finances are terrible, and they continue to lose money.

    Like I said, it's going to take a long, consistent trend of good hardware and good business decisions to pull AMD away from the brink of failure. Their last couple of years have not been this. Their next 5 will need to be.

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    Let's hope AMD doesn't crash, we need some competition on the market!
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    The hope isn't that they don't crash the hope is to that better competition takes their place.
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    I should get ahead of the curve and ban you now then...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silverhandorder View Post
    The hope isn't that they don't crash the hope is to that better competition takes their place.
    A brand new chipmaker won't suddenly emerge and successfully compete with Intel. If anything, AMD will be bought just like ATI was bought. Chances are the name won't even change.

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