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  1. #1

    Default Darkfall has the best crafting ever!

    E.g.

    What are the chances of a 10% probability event to happen 4 times in a row?
    In rl what, about .01%?

    In DF it happens to somebody every day.

    Because DF is all about fun.

    And there's nothing more fun than to lose thousands of gold\hours of your life to that lovable cute RND generator those funny funny greek programmers wrote.

  2. #2
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    good 1.

    Quote Originally Posted by shamer gamer View Post
    I grow things for my income so I have lots of free time to play DF.
    Quote Originally Posted by bongloads View Post
    This entire community used to defend Darkfall. It was like a forum full of Tibernicus's. Now, 95% of darkfall vets on forums are completely negative. Something tells me the blame doesn't lie with the community.

  3. #3
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    You must consider that the probability (0.01%) is only if 1 person crafts 4 times.

    if you craft 40 times then probability = 0.1%
    400 times = 1%
    100 people x 400 crafting attempts = 100% probability of 4 fails in a row.
    I'm gonna pop some hags - only got 20g in my pockets.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by axalon View Post
    You must consider that the probability (0.01%) is only if 1 person crafts 4 times.

    if you craft 40 times then probability = 0.1%
    400 times = 1%
    100 people x 400 crafting attempts = 100% probability of 4 fails in a row.
    I said 4 times in a row.

    To explain further to fail 4 times out of 40 is still 10%
    to fail 4 times in a row of of 40 or 4 bazillion is still 0.01%
    Last edited by alfar1; 05-29-2010 at 17:34.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by alfar1
    I said 4 times in a row.
    i know
    Last edited by axalon; 05-29-2010 at 17:53.
    I'm gonna pop some hags - only got 20g in my pockets.

  6. #6
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    math, how does it work?
    Last edited by Makgyver; 05-29-2010 at 17:32.

  7. #7
    2000+ Umki Bloodsoul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alfar1 View Post
    What are the chances of a 10% probability event to happen 4 times in a row?
    In rl what, about .01%?

    In DF it happens to somebody every day.
    DF is not RL. Random events are difficult to create / simulate in computers. Nobody knows how chances in RL really work. God? Destiny? Chaos? What you expect?
    Last edited by Umki Bloodsoul; 05-29-2010 at 17:38.

  8. #8
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    Your missing the probability factor here. The percentage isn't on the total amount of times you are crafting its per craft. If you have a 90% success rate or a 99% success rate its not based on 90% of your total amount that you are crafting but its based on each item you craft. You have a 10% chance to fail for every item not 10 times out of a hundred. You can potentially fail 100 out of 100 times but it doesn't change the fact that the probability of failure rate was only 10%. It just means you have shitty luck and landed in that 10% all the time.

  9. #9

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    The crafting is just like in WoW .
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonte912 View Post
    quit whining you carebear, if you wanna be able to log in all the time then go back to WoW!

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrappy_Doo View Post
    Your missing the probability factor here. The percentage isn't on the total amount of times you are crafting its per craft. If you have a 90% success rate or a 99% success rate its not based on 90% of your total amount that you are crafting but its based on each item you craft. You have a 10% chance to fail for every item not 10 times out of a hundred. You can potentially fail 100 out of 100 times but it doesn't change the fact that the probability of failure rate was only 10%. It just means you have shitty luck and landed in that 10% all the time.
    You are missing the point that probability of 2 events, that have 10% probability of occurring on their own, to occur simultaneously (or immediately one after another) is much less than probability of only one of these events to occur or for both of them to occur in different moments in time.

    The improbability of several unlikely events to occur one after another goes up exponentially.

    It's pretty basic stuff really.

    Quote Originally Posted by axalon View Post
    i know
    why don't you quote the 2 lines below the "I said 4 times in a row." and reply to them?
    Last edited by alfar1; 05-29-2010 at 20:10.

  11. #11
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    its just pixels man ! . er nm pixels = hours of your life . the secret is to never have anything nice . i roll in goblin loots and never get upset with a loss

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    Quote Originally Posted by alfar1 View Post
    It's pretty basic stuff really.
    Indeed.. There are two probabilities here:

    1: The probability of getting four failures (10% chance of failure) in a row = 0.01%
    2: The probability that the above happens once in 40.000 crafting attempts = 100%

    Quote Originally Posted by alfar1 View Post
    why don't you quote the 2 lines below the "I said 4 times in a row." and reply to them?
    Because you ninja edited your post and i felt the need to clarify what I responded to - thus my subsequent edit.
    Last edited by axalon; 05-29-2010 at 23:50.
    I'm gonna pop some hags - only got 20g in my pockets.

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