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Azra'eil
04-13-2009, 21:27
So I just finished reading White Paper of the Interagency Policy Group's Report on Afghanistan and Pakistan.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/national/090327-afghanistan-pakistan-wp.htm

I wanted to know what endgame in Afghanistan will look like for the US and NATO?
And if you agree with my assessment that endgame will result in Taliban as a political party?


There is no military victory in Afghanistan, the tactic of building up infrastructure for the civilians to win hearts and minds (as adopted from the Iraq strategy) can only work so far in Afghanistan because it requires protection of those areas, boots on the ground. You cant come in build roads and electricity lines then just leave and go back to base for the night. You have to occupy the land in which you wish to build up. Or you will be building the same road every week; a nice drain on cash not to mention the risk you put the soldiers in every time. In Iraq the population density allowed this to influence more people in each step forward. Afghanistan is to large, our military would be over extended just to cover the populated areas which would leave the unpopulated areas to insurgency.

Another destabilizing issue is the narcotic trade, the economy it builds is huge and in that part of the world nothing can beat that domestically. We could offer them better gain's and seeds and teach them to grow with greater yield but I don’t buy this idea that if we just did that the opium farming would stop. We would have to actively start seeking out destroying the production. We would need a intelligence apparatus for just this. I have not heard a great solution to this issue. Any Ideas?
Anti-Nacro Officers in Mexico eventually realized if they ever wanted a country representing them or protecting them that they had to stop the nacro trade, so they risk their lives. To be the police captain of boarder cities is a death wish yet they step up when their predecessor is executed, not only that but they put their families at risk. I think the willingness of such unselfish action is the only way to combat this kind of billion dollar industry and I won’t expect these ideas to enter Afghanistan for a long time.


I take the hardliner rightwing idea that we can not negotiate with terrorist generally, however on this issue I am bent. Recently I got to talk to a guy pretty high up in the DNC and it was like we had switch roles. He disagreed that we could negotiate with the Taliban. My points where that once cornered, the Taliban will resort to intimidating the Afghan Civilians which would push public opinion (much like Anbar Awakening) to the NATO mission.
Once this happens, Taliban will be at odds with the general population. In a attempt to win back the civilians opinion they must set up land that they can protect and build up infrastructure, this is necessary for them to gather power and will of the people; the PLO aka PA did this, Hezbollah has done this successfully. By threatening to destroy that land, you are putting pressure on their power over the civilians. At the same time you must threatening diminishing power in government based on how they act at that current time. The Mahdi Militia looked around and realized if they didn’t put there guns down and jump into the political process they would be left out.


EU3 especially Britain have been working with the Taliban on diplomatic levels for quit some time. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1573687/Britain-in-secret-talks-with-the-Taliban.html
I am convinced there is no military victory in Afghanistan, The Russians couldn’t do it by terrorism, atrocities, demoralization, and largely targeted killings of innocents. What hope does the US have? The US would never attempt policies like the Russians. Will the extra troops Obama sent help? I don’t think so, we would have to have a draft 1% of the population to field the kind of troops that would make a significant difference.

What is everyone's take on a possible endgame in Afghanistan?

-Azra'eil




Bryan Suits Dark Secret Place: Soviet withdraw of Afghanistan and lessons learned.
http://a1135.g.akamai.net/f/1135/18227/1h/cchannel.download.akamai.com/18227/podcast/LOSANGELES-CA/KFI-AM/Suits021509.mp3

BrainFire
04-13-2009, 21:58
endgame = Osama and other terrorist ring leaders... dead. Afghanistan has no hope of every becoming any sort of civilized country.

Ziegler
04-13-2009, 22:00
90% of the poppy fields are in Afghanistan and are under "US control"....it would take nothing more than a couple of fly overs with Roundup and it would be completely decimated.


We havent done it yet and we wont...but why?

Because the general populace of afghanistan is for those fields, killing those fields would turn them all against us openly, instead of hidden.


There is no solution to this that a liberal will like, they hate the US becuase of our liberal ideals and religious dogma of judeo/christians. So we're hated for both ends of the spectrum. That aint going to change til the mullahs decide differently.

Someone
04-13-2009, 22:53
90% of the poppy fields are in Afghanistan and are under "US control"....it would take nothing more than a couple of fly overs with Roundup and it would be completely decimated.


We havent done it yet and we wont...but why?

Because the general populace of afghanistan is for those fields, killing those fields would turn them all against us openly, instead of hidden.


There is no solution to this that a liberal will like, they hate the US becuase of our liberal ideals and religious dogma of judeo/christians. So we're hated for both ends of the spectrum. That aint going to change til the mullahs decide differently.

It's not really the civilians that are for them, it's the warlords that control those civilians and the same warlords are the US forces prime allies. Just because the Northern Alliance opposed the Taliban doesn't mean they're nice people. Some of their leaders are among the most vile, sadistic scumbags you could find on this planet and they're now among the US prime allies in Afghanistan.

Getting the Taliban into the political game is probably the only way to make Afghanistan end up like anything other than a total clusterfuck. To do that they first need to identify which leaders among the Taliban that can be reasoned with and what kind of compromises they can reach. It's not easily done but it's probably the best course of action.

Vessol
04-13-2009, 23:22
Afghanistan already is controlled again by the Taliban. They just re instituted Sharia law. GG America

Also I laughed at you saying those fighting the Drug War are selfless. Maybe if we didn't create a market for drugs, there wouldn't be a Drug War. aka if we didn't criminalize drugs.

verlox2
04-13-2009, 23:37
Endgame: After a great deal of raiding, Obama and his guild-buddies will storm into the Afghanistan. Obama, as the raid's Priest, will be uber protected. Bush and Cheney will be pulling mobs like crazy. Hilary Clinton, being the most ill-equipped rogue ever, will quickly be killed t he the last mob, Osama, before he is killed by Bush.

Sharuk
04-14-2009, 00:14
Afghanistan already is controlled again by the Taliban. They just re instituted Sharia law. GG America

Also I laughed at you saying those fighting the Drug War are selfless. Maybe if we didn't create a market for drugs, there wouldn't be a Drug War. aka if we didn't criminalize drugs.

If we did it would get worse...........

KinkyGoblin
04-14-2009, 00:34
come back in 6-8 years to talk about the end game, its going to take a long freakin time.

Helgeran
04-14-2009, 01:19
90% of the poppy fields are in Afghanistan and are under "US control"....it would take nothing more than a couple of fly overs with Roundup and it would be completely decimated.


We havent done it yet and we wont...but why?

Because the general populace of afghanistan is for those fields, killing those fields would turn them all against us openly, instead of hidden.


There is no solution to this that a liberal will like, they hate the US becuase of our liberal ideals and religious dogma of judeo/christians. So we're hated for both ends of the spectrum. That aint going to change til the mullahs decide differently.
I thought liberals liked drugs.

lafayette
04-14-2009, 02:21
Endgame?

Their is no end game.

Afghanistan and the war on terror as a whole, are just like WOW. Bush, Obama, and what ever douche bag comes after them will just keep adding expansions and raising the level cap.


HAHA! :lmao: endgame....

Vessol
04-14-2009, 02:58
If we did it would get worse...........

If we legalized drugs, it would get worse? How? The market would be destroyed and those who sold the drugs wouldn't make so much because from smuggling them and charging ten-fold.

Or are you talking about the people growing them? Perhaps they will realize that they can't keep suckling the tit of Western desires and then try to increase production in their own country. Factories, farms, mines, etc.

Sharuk
04-14-2009, 02:59
If we legalized drugs, it would get worse? How? The market would be destroyed and those who sold the drugs wouldn't make so much because from smuggling them and charging ten-fold.

Or are you talking about the people growing them? Perhaps they will realize that they can't keep suckling the tit of Western desires and then try to increase production in their own country. Factories, farms, mines, etc.

Because the Drug Cartels would get very violent, even more so then now

Ziegler
04-14-2009, 12:59
Afghanistan already is controlled again by the Taliban. They just re instituted Sharia law. GG America.

Well, they now have a muslim ally running their enemies government. Why wouldnt they?