Oil Free by 2030

[Crying Hyena]

With all that's been going on recently with the oil prices skyrocketing then plummeting, economic recession, and a growing food crisis (this is debatable), what are your thoughts on the U.S. being an oil free country by 2030. The U.S. has already set markers for 2022 for alternative energy percentages for U.S. energy. Brazil already has its energy system up and running. What are your thoughts on the U.S. trying to do the same?

[holychicken]

Not bloody likely.

The 2022 mark is only something like 20% (IIRC) being oil independent. I doubt in 8 years we would be able to get off the other 80%.

[Caffy]

I think the government should stay out of it. When the market says alternative energy is more viable than fossil fuels, then we'll use them.

[Agge]

The big oil companies won't allow it to happen.

[vinny1]

I think it's possible. Really, the main events riding on that number are going to be wars, presidents, and trades. As long as the US stays out of most every war, has at least decent presidents, and we have at least a steady supply of oil coming in (can't switch over night, and, a steady switch is a good switch, never good to be hasty), along with technologies that will help the US reach the goal.

That being said, we will most likely not have a plethora of good presidents, no wars, and decent trades. So, oh well I guess.

[Khantrah]

I thought you meant oil would be free by 2030. :(

Comrade Obama talks about how he'll be putting us all to work constructing wind turbines everywhere, so maybe it is possible.

[Fluffington]

The food crisis is happening, you just need to be in a poor country to feel it. Biofuels would really get the crisis going though.

[Ungraylessness]

I thought you meant oil would be free by 2030. :(

Comrade Obama talks about how he'll be putting us all to work constructing wind turbines everywhere, so maybe it is possible.

Not all of us, just the serfs

[Ungraylessness]

The food crisis is happening, you just need to be in a poor country to feel it. Biofuels would really get the crisis going though.

Cannibalism would solve most of our problems

[pongo]

Not bloody likely.

The 2022 mark is only something like 20% (IIRC) being oil independent. I doubt in 8 years we would be able to get off the other 80%.

Don't be so sure.

See: human genome project.

[Crying Hyena]

Don't be so sure.

See: human genome project.

What was the time span on that?

[Warhawk]

The problem is, you can not just create (out of thin air) a replacement.

It also depends on what oil-free means. For example, oil free cars? That is more probable than just oil-free as a whole. I dont see that happening for a LONG time.

Alcohol will be more viable once alcohol from cellulose is simple and cheap. Will it ever be? It's a costly process currently, and involves acids/chemicals that are not environmentally friendly. Combustion of alcohol still produces greenhouse gasses too.

Tranesterified natural oils are a little more promising, but still a pollution factor and could not be made in enough quantity to totally satisfy the energy need.

Hydrogen seems impressive, if the pesky stuff wouldnt need to be in a high pressure tank, explode easily, or net a low yield from fuel cells. Fuel cell technology will improve but will it reach a diminishing return limit and at that limit will it make a difference?

Those 3 above fuels combined may reduce reliance on fossil oil enough to make a significant difference.

Electricity is promising but batteries are not exactly healthy things to have around. I'm sure the process of salvaging and recycling all the old batteries would get streamlined, though. Also, what do we use to generate the electricity to charge the batteries? We'd need more nuclear production, period. Solar setups would help with that but as a large scale solution it is not the answer yet.

[ikhoefnix]

This won't happen. Unless they make alternative fuel motorcycles. Fuck cars.

[Fluffington]

Only electric could be energy efficient enough to run cars. Hydrogen is a step in the wrong direction because it is energy inefficient.

[Baralis]

Oil free? not likely seeing how something like 60%+ goes into the manufacturing of goods.

Possible yes absolutly, but we all would need to make huge adjustments in our lives. Goods would not be as cheap as they are now and most of us would need to settle for alot less then we have now. Personaly I have no issue with this to become oil independent and more enviromently freindly as a nation but most will not choose to live with less.

One day obviously we will be an oil free nation simply because the world will run out but untill this happens thier will always be $ in oil and someone will exploit that.

[[O]_Fawkes]

Meh, pretty optimistic really.

We're having some great breakthroughs in science lately fuel-wise, it's a possibility that we'd be off oil's nipple in 2022 but unlikely.

[omnigol]

I think the government should stay out of it. When the market says alternative energy is more viable than fossil fuels, then we'll use them.

Nonsense, everyone knows the government can make the discovery of new technologies more timely by stealing huge amounts of wealth from the markets and giving it to themselves their cronies and their nieces and nephews.

[Vaalsha]

If someone says government shouldnt intervene you are a intellectual light weight. Not only is getting off oil important for the enviroment its essential to national security both short and long term. If USA pushes for alternative energy it will also re awaken our R&D industry.

[Shrang]

Only electric could be energy efficient enough to run cars. Hydrogen is a step in the wrong direction because it is energy inefficient.

Fluff is right!!!!

[Krush]

Just install bumper car type roads and we can use electricity to drive around, and we can ram people that piss us off.

[Warhawk]

Only electric could be energy efficient enough to run cars. Hydrogen is a step in the wrong direction because it is energy inefficient.

Unless you have a fuel cell system that worked as near perfect as possible. It will happen someday, just definitely not now. If the fuel of choice is basically free it doesn't matter how inefficient it is really. Also, it doesn't release CO2, so again, if you have to burn more of it , it doesn't matter.

Electric IS efficient, not could be. But making the electricity to recharge millions of cars is a problem.

Tree huggers hate Nuke plants, and that's the only feasible way to do it right now.

[Vanno]

To be contrarian to all the apparent physics professors and engineers posting in this thread, I will state that I simply don't know. Our technology advances at such an increasing pace, who knows what the energy landscape will look like in 11 years.

[gtechie]

With all that's been going on recently with the oil prices skyrocketing then plummeting, economic recession, and a growing food crisis (this is debatable), what are your thoughts on the U.S. being an oil free country by 2030. The U.S. has already set markers for 2022 for alternative energy percentages for U.S. energy. Brazil already has its energy system up and running. What are your thoughts on the U.S. trying to do the same?

Even if we "could" be oil-independent by 2030, our government has its hands in Big Oil's pockets, and it won't happen. Unless some serious shit changes.

[Vanno]

If someone says government shouldnt intervene you are a intellectual light weight. Not only is getting off oil important for the enviroment its essential to national security both short and long term. If USA pushes for alternative energy it will also re awaken our R&D industry.

Government shouldn't intervene; they certainly shouldn't fund the RandD departments of the oil companies that have conflicting interests.

[Warhawk]

To be contrarian to all the apparent physics professors and engineers posting in this thread, I will state that I simply don't know. Our technology advances at such an increasing pace, who knows what the energy landscape will look like in 11 years.

You can be condescending if you like but some gamers are actually college educated engineers. Some technologies do not advance at an increasing rate at all. There are many areas where technology has reached a stagnant period.

[Vanno]

You can be condescending if you like but some gamers are actually college educated engineers. Some technologies do not advance at an increasing rate at all. There are many areas where technology has reached a stagnant period.

Thanks for your approval.

Now, I am sure there are some college educated people on these forums; that is entirely irrelevant to the point I was making, which is that certainty of the future is an absurd notion, especially in regards to technology. And sure, I'd imagine certain sectors have stagnated, but the macro trend is up.

[Warhawk]

Thanks for your approval.

Now, I am sure there are some college educated people on these forums; that is entirely irrelevant to the point I was making, which is that certainty of the future is an absurd notion, especially in regards to technology. And sure, I'd imagine certain sectors have stagnated, but the macro trend is up.

An absurd notion? lol It isnt at all irrelevant. There are certain realities and brick walls that alternative fuel ideas have run up against. The trend is not up in this field, although a few breakthroughs or new avenues of research would really go a long way.

Now get off the forum and create a efficient fuel cell.

[Vanno]

An absurd notion? lol It isnt at all irrelevant. There are certain realities and brick walls that alternative fuel ideas have run up against.

Now get off the forum and create a efficient fuel cell.

Are you retarded, or do you purposely subvert points by attacking ones that aren't being made? When did I even say anything about fuel cells?

The trend is not up in this field, although a few breakthroughs or new avenues of research would really go a long way.

Way to completely illustrate the point I was making. I withdrawl my previous question. Are you schizophrenic or perhaps afflicted by ADD?

[Wonderboy2402]

We are going to need something on the level of an Apollo moon mission in terms of research and investment to even hit that mark... It will be a rush to get there before the real shortage hits home... and I do not think we'll make it. Hard years are down the road.

[HorrorHotel]

I think the government should stay out of it. When the market says alternative energy is more viable than fossil fuels, then we'll use them.

By the time that happens we'll be buying super oil-free cars from Europe, not making our own. Now come on, think about that. Wouldn't it be better for our economy if we could do the selling? hmm?

[Mr.LichTwitch]

I think the government should stay out of it. When the market says alternative energy is more viable than fossil fuels, then we'll use them.

I'd love to agree with this, but there are so many better things to do with our natural resources besides burning them up at the rate we're burning them up. If we let the market decide, we'll keep burning it until it's gone. That would be retarded, but people are known to let profits outweigh logic.

Brazil already has its energy system up and running. What are your thoughts on the U.S. trying to do the same?

It helps to have the amount of sugar cane that they have in order to make enough ethanol to be independent. I'm almost positive sugar cane has the highest yield of ethanol. The U.S. is too corrupt to use something efficient like switch grass, which uses little to no fertilizer to grow, to make ethanol. Our government would rather use corn which requires ridiculous amounts of nitrogen fertilizers(that use tons of petroleum in their production process) to grow, yet yields about one third the amount of ethanol that switch grass yields.

[Crying Hyena]

I'd love to agree with this, but there are so many better things to do with our natural resources besides burning them up at the rate we're burning them up. If we let the market decide, we'll keep burning it until it's gone. That would be retarded, but people are known to let profits outweigh logic.



It helps to have the amount of sugar cane that they have in order to make enough ethanol to be independent. I'm almost positive sugar cane has the highest yield of ethanol. The U.S. is too corrupt to use something efficient like switch grass, which uses little to no fertilizer to grow, to make ethanol. Our government would rather use corn which requires ridiculous amounts of nitrogen fertilizers(that use tons of petroleum in their production process) to grow, yet yields about one third the amount of ethanol that switch grass yields.

That's been one of my questions. Ultimately, our current systems require fertilizer of some sort which is usually required some sort of fossil fuel to create. Corn has just been a debacle in the alternative fuels arena and you're right. Switchgrass would be better but environmentalists are hesitant about alloing the U.S. to use non farmable land for switchgrass due to the effect on biodiversity on the ecosystem. The data on switchgrass varies due to the effect of ligning during the various methods used. The costs are incredibly high right now but waiting for the oil to run out is a dumb thing and as has been stated, the market will not move there unless there is a need and the market is incredibly short sighted. Oil prices have dropped, which reduces funding, and we are in a recession, which reduces funding, yet civilization is using more oil than it has ever used before. When we run out, it's going to be fast from the point we realize, "um, we've passed the 50% point." to the "Oh shit!" point and then it will be too late. There is alot of alternative proposals out there but none of them are standing up very well and biofuels have hit a wall in advancement currently. It all depends on breakthroughs over the next few years.

[mebraingot]

anything can happen and any time and change it for the better or worse

could be 10 years could be 500

[Malhavok]

The big oil companies won't allow it to happen.

Of course they will. Alternative energy is synonymous with more expensive energy. That means a larger pie for the energy companies - which right now are dominated by the oil/natural gas and coal companies. They are also the largest investors in R&D into alternative energy and have the cash to buy up any patents and copyrights.

Secondly, the biggest slice of the pie for oil doesn't go to the oil companies it goes to the oil producing countries. Not so with alternative energy. The biggest slice of the pie here will probably end up going to the patent holder.

Sparknotes: Alternative energy means a bigger slice of a bigger pie for big oil. The only thing holding this awesome pie back is that it's made from sucralose and tastes like shit. Consumers simply aren't willing to pay for the less energy dense pie when good old oil pies are cheap and readily available. Cue government mandates please.

[Malhavok]

That's been one of my questions. Ultimately, our current systems require fertilizer of some sort which is usually required some sort of fossil fuel to create. Corn has just been a debacle in the alternative fuels arena and you're right. Switchgrass would be better but environmentalists are hesitant about alloing the U.S. to use non farmable land for switchgrass due to the effect on biodiversity on the ecosystem. The data on switchgrass varies due to the effect of ligning during the various methods used. The costs are incredibly high right now but waiting for the oil to run out is a dumb thing and as has been stated, the market will not move there unless there is a need and the market is incredibly short sighted. Oil prices have dropped, which reduces funding, and we are in a recession, which reduces funding, yet civilization is using more oil than it has ever used before. When we run out, it's going to be fast from the point we realize, "um, we've passed the 50% point." to the "Oh shit!" point and then it will be too late. There is alot of alternative proposals out there but none of them are standing up very well and biofuels have hit a wall in advancement currently. It all depends on breakthroughs over the next few years.

It's been 6,000 years (or 150 if you only count drilling rather than skimming bubbling oil from ponds) and we haven't hit peak oil. According to the peak oil loons that'll happen in 2010, which they know based on their infallible crystal ball. This is the same crystal ball used to predict peak oil around 2000.

If the peak oil picture was actually accurate we'd see a bell-shaped curve. That is to say if peak oil occurred in 2010 - which is what the infallible ball says now that 2000 has come and gone - we'd see oil production in 2020 at approximately the same levels as 2000. Oil production hasn't exactly grown all that much since the 70's so we'd have a good 40 years before it really fell off. That is assuming the infallible crystal ball doesn't fail again in 2010.

[TubeSock]

You're all wrong. The world will end in 2012, duh.

[Malhavok]

You're all wrong. The world will end in 2012, duh.

The peak oil crystal ball has spoken!:ohno:

[vaier]

Cannibalism would solve most of our problems.

[Drudley]

It's been 6,000 years (or 150 if you only count drilling rather than skimming bubbling oil from ponds) and we haven't hit peak oil. According to the peak oil loons that'll happen in 2010, which they know based on their infallible crystal ball. This is the same crystal ball used to predict peak oil around 2000.

If the peak oil picture was actually accurate we'd see a bell-shaped curve. That is to say if peak oil occurred in 2010 - which is what the infallible ball says now that 2000 has come and gone - we'd see oil production in 2020 at approximately the same levels as 2000. Oil production hasn't exactly grown all that much since the 70's so we'd have a good 40 years before it really fell off. That is assuming the infallible crystal ball doesn't fail again in 2010.

It's quite obvious we won't reach peak oil by 2010, but it wouldn't suprise me if it was reached by 2030.

Also, what you said about us producing the same amount of oil in 2020 as in 2000 if we hit the peak in 2010 doesn't matter, the thing is that by 2020 we will use so much more oil that what used to be enough may no longer be enough, thus oil will be tons more expensive than it was 2000, in 2020.

[Requiamer]

Cannibalism would solve most of our problems

Soylent green is really a stunning film about that.

[Badem]

America could easily supply itslef with power without having to use Oil.....

The trick is to take a nice large desert somewhere in America that has a LOT of sunshine.....

Then build a MASSIVE solar plat, connect the power station to it then supply the country

The porblem is transporting such power massive distance, once the figure this out (Tesla Towers?) then the world will start to harness the power of the sun :)

[Thonohuil]

The moon is a satelite, correct? Well lets stick some solar panels on it and one hell of a big wire trailing through space to earth and harness the raw energy of the sun :sly:

*Warning* Expect mass flooding when the tides start messing up